Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c0b543eed65fc2dbb1ff3cd3913baf96df8f0ecdd40d213d456e11d8e5798ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 4,780$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.43 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…e524backed Yes | 5c | 2,156$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.49 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 33c | 672.19$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.77 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 73c | 544.96$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.83 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 17c | 401.69$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 25c | 267.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 66c | 243.65$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.17 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 233.87$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 9c | 229.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 163.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 62c | 160.26$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 146.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 69c | 137.96$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 134.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 12c | 122.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 29c | 112.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 72c | 111.31$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 72c | 109.45$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41c6…76b2backed No | 76c | 108.08$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 23c | 107.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed No | 71c | 103.09$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 97.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 94.85$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…970ebacked Yes | 35c | 92.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 32c | 92.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 18c | 89.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 16c | 89.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…7291backed Yes | 18c | 88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 34c | 79.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 40c | 79.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 51c | 78.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 19c | 76.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 15c | 66.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 66.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a30ebacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 56.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 70c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1a…89e5backed No | 68c | 49.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 23c | 46.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 30c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 23c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 40.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 32c | 37.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x790a…5afcbacked No | 78c | 30.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 68c | 24.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 64c | 18.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c5…b9b6backed No | 79c | 18.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 69c | 14.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 76c | 13.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 56°F or higher on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.