MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09ffa52c5a8aabd8516515fa96e9adc7b802cec73e4c342485f405a41430c7b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 53c | 1,134$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.97 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Under | 54c | 747.55$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.87 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 717.28$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.23 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 44c | 693.91$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.02 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 689.46$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.84 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd7…33d9backed Over | 49c | 673.14$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.84 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 47c | 580.92$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.03 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 46c | 435.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.29 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 50c | 386$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.95 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 368.13$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 52c | 365.2$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.17 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…cd9dbacked Under | 60c | 244$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 40c | 229.75$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.83 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…4bbfbacked Over | 47c | 206.54$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 47c | 194.05$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 192.23$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 64c | 188.26$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 59c | 186.04$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed0…b5b8backed Under | 58c | 185.92$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 59c | 185.56$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…58c9backed Under | 59c | 184.9$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.41 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc75…5431backed Under | 60c | 181.59$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 170.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 54c | 104.05$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 55c | 94.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 86.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 39c | 74.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Over | 47c | 60.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 56c | 57.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 62c | 51.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec1…332dbacked Under | 59c | 48.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 46.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 63c | 43.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 65c | 38.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…4740backed Under | 66c | 38.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 47c | 33.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…3170backed Over | 47c | 32.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 46c | 27.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 44c | 27.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Under | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 54c | 26.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…0b88backed Over | 42c | 25.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.