NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a144078a068afec8b833ccf4d2c7ca4dd8fb4555edeb342dd62f63d718384b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Knicks, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Knicks | 54c | 12,138$6,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,591.77 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Heat | 50c | 3,831$1,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,933.29 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Heat | 47c | 3,148$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664.96 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Heat | 47c | 2,049$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.89 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 45c | 2,017$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.94 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Heat | 44c | 1,732$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.36 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 45c | 1,477$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.59 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Knicks | 50c | 1,473$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.83 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Heat | 46c | 1,250$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.43 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Heat | 49c | 814.63$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.79 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…a857backed Knicks | 51c | 784.99$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.35 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d6…9bb1backed Knicks | 54c | 364.65$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.91 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Heat | 46c | 218$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.63 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Heat | 49c | 199.95$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.97 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Knicks | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Knicks | 54c | 184.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…4740backed Knicks | 52c | 182.17$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Knicks | 52c | 161.38$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.92 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9117…cecabacked Knicks | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Knicks | 52c | 145$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Knicks | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f8…c69ebacked Knicks | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Heat | 48c | 96.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Knicks | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Heat | 50c | 94.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Heat | 48c | 90.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Knicks | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Heat | 55c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Heat | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe890…5d71backed Knicks | 52c | 40.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9038…216cbacked Knicks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd817…b8e7backed Knicks | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe67f…ed37backed Knicks | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc264…eb32backed Knicks | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…3ca6backed Knicks | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f15…4ea4backed Knicks | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…5384backed Knicks | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c14…4573backed Knicks | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2337…3a2cbacked Knicks | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…61edbacked Knicks | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…ed1dbacked Knicks | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…28a7backed Knicks | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f8…2d23backed Knicks | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…aea5backed Knicks | 51c | 26.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1d…6519backed Knicks | 54c | 25.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5b0bbacked Knicks | 52c | 24.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d6…89ecbacked Knicks | 51c | 24.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabd1…844cbacked Knicks | 51c | 24.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…28cfbacked Knicks | 52c | 21.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…1109backed Knicks | 51c | 21.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c5…fa93backed Knicks | 52c | 20.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)this page
- Knicks vs. HeatHeat won
- Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 227.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Heat: O/U 228.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.