Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a44cdd49bec4f01bc37bf21a010ad13d83213bc77f4c67d8f1f00a77eae1285
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 45c | 1,409$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.69 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 535.84$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 39c | 291.57$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.57 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 288.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 47c | 265$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.45 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 9c | 217.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 56c | 172.63$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 169.61$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 161.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 63c | 143.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 131$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 54c | 120.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 13c | 111.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 46c | 105.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 51c | 97.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 91.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6e…e44cbacked Yes | 41c | 87.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 83.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 54c | 81.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 49c | 81.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 80.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 62c | 80.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 64c | 78.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 56c | 72.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 58c | 69.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 64.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 36c | 61.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 39c | 47.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 27c | 46.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 44.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 69c | 43.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 45c | 43.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 34c | 43.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 42c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…45c3backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 44c | 39.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 37c | 35.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 54c | 34.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 56c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…322fbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 65c | 29.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…727bbacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3e…b7aabacked No | 54c | 27.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 80c | 27.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 50c | 26.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 61c | 26.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed Yes | 45c | 25.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 25.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 55c | 21.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 20.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 20.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6e…b0e9backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 17.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 67c | 16.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed6…85aebacked No | 65c | 16.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.