Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50fbb923faa2ebc110ff228951a6dec6e91b5c648a35eb3064e865e3845affcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 29c | 612.45$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 5c | 349.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 35c | 287.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 23c | 215.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 8c | 196.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 189.7$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 14c | 188.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 187.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 68c | 172.76$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 169.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 27c | 165.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 19c | 151.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 31c | 144.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 23c | 117.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 67c | 115.82$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 10c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 78c | 99.88$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 29c | 83.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 78.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 76.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 65c | 76.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 64.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 20c | 63.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 76c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 26c | 59.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…989ebacked No | 66c | 56.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 73c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86f…4bf3backed No | 71c | 50.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 79c | 50.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 77c | 48.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 68c | 44.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 77c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 28c | 38.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 64c | 37.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 32c | 37.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 31.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 31.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 30.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 30.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…322fbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 66c | 29.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…af67backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 20.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 77c | 19.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 75c | 19.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc419…ca5bbacked No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 17.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 63c | 16.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 80c | 15.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.