Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x426b675b8f0934b4435b0b44d58bcc1a9bf294eed85f457a2b6c88be5f22e005
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 42c | 488.54$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.19 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 281.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 240.6$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 191.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 17c | 181.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 78c | 161.88$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 18c | 160.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 151.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed No | 71c | 123.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 31c | 108.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 11c | 106.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 104.53$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 103.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 25c | 82.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…fb18backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 20c | 60.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed No | 77c | 53.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…e43cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 77c | 44.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 63c | 44.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 70c | 39.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902b…6e29backed No | 72c | 37.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 30.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 80c | 25.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 76c | 23.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 23.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 66c | 22.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 78c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 18.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 63c | 15.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 64c | 15.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 66c | 15.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 14.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.