Commodities · resolved market
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a9125eee84216d1398a0a932738deb163c3a72755d5131102ccc26384cb4578
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Down | 35c | 2,321$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.28 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +23.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 66c | 1,800$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183 | 952 | 40.1%382 W · 570 L | -71.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…4e58backed Up | 59c | 1,001$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.26 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 23c | 705.96$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.99 | 1,294 | 24.1%312 W · 982 L | -59.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Up | 34c | 583.04$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.23 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Up | 60c | 519.45$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.72 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Down | 54c | 497.61$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.86 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Up | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 294 | 63.9%188 W · 106 L | +47.5wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…10c6backed Down | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Down | 26c | 184.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.23 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 60c | 177.46$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 306 | 43.5%133 W · 173 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 30c | 106.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 376 | 51.1%192 W · 184 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 55c | 97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 1,060 | 35%371 W · 689 L | -92.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 29c | 88.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 155 | 21.3%33 W · 122 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9f…cc6ebacked Down | 68c | 87.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…857ebacked Down | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…1fafbacked Down | 58c | 77.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f8…1a89backed Up | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…bf1ebacked Down | 55c | 57.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafc5…2b8bbacked Up | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked Up | 71c | 41.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef25…24c8backed Down | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…9215backed Up | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Up | 61c | 20.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Down | 54c | 19.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.