Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aa82454bb59096dac63cda4f6b1fe9c735487c5ac2844be71cf1dc2ec110ce7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 29c | 4,238$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.74 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf7…43a2backed No | 1c | 2,036$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 11c | 1,384$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.24 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 2c | 1,262$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 14c | 1,138$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.48 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 6c | 772.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 11c | 766.54$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 3c | 574.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 5c | 489.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.47 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 5c | 399.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 12c | 346.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 3c | 318.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 64c | 305$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.11 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 59c | 298.84$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.67 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 14c | 262.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 56c | 219.34$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 14c | 217.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 79c | 198.05$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 6c | 195$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.52 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 23c | 173.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 77c | 126.32$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87b1…4fcfbacked No | 12c | 113.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 14c | 98.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 15c | 92.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 28c | 74.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 30c | 69.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 25c | 60.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 36c | 29.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 66c | 21.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…7e3abacked Yes | 76c | 19.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 79c | 14.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 15°C or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 17°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 18°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 19°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or higher on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.