College Football · resolved market
Spread: Virginia Tech (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aed3cc99a10297d4dc3ab82b7473c9352ae6375429a121cbc4216c95b3a27b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginia Techof Virginia Tech, California
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Virginia Tech | 49c | 6,013$2,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,048.78 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Virginia Tech | 48c | 3,900$1,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,028.16 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked California | 51c | 3,440$1,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,743.1 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed California | 52c | 3,382$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed California | 50c | 2,502$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed California | 43c | 1,486$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.4 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Virginia Tech | 57c | 1,436$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.4 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Virginia Tech | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked California | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked California | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed California | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed California | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed California | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Virginia Tech | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1498…a10bbacked California | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0f…a394backed Virginia Tech | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x382b…2c5abacked California | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked California | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…3363backed California | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4d…ecc8backed California | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Virginia Tech | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Virginia Tech | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked California | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked California | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb05e…4fcebacked Virginia Tech | 69c | 35.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…d78cbacked California | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…a2e2backed California | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…287cbacked Virginia Tech | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Virginia Tech (-6.5)this page
- California vs. Virginia TechVirginia Tech won
- California vs. Virginia Tech: O/U 50.5Over won
- O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Virginia Tech (-4.5)Virginia Tech won
- Spread: Virginia Tech (-5.5)Virginia Tech won
- Spread: Virginia Tech (-7.5)Virginia Tech won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.