TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Spread: Virginia Tech (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Virginia Techof Virginia Tech, California
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,335
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,335 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xae0f…f647backed Virginia Tech55c8,999$4,949 inWon+$4,049.563342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed California45c4,944$2,225 inLost-$2,224.8115451.9%80 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked California45c4,000$1,800 inLost-$1,80081847.9%392 W · 426 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Virginia Tech53c3,687$1,954 inWon+$1,73339954.1%216 W · 183 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed California48c3,424$1,644 inLost-$1,643.5234250.3%172 W · 170 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Virginia Tech52c3,396$1,766 inWon+$1,630.128331.3%26 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked California47c3,039$1,425 inLost-$1,424.822,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1bc…9dc9backed California49c2,041$1,000 inLost-$1,0005437%20 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Virginia Tech54c600$324 inWon+$27611142.3%47 W · 64 L-10.4wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfbb6…25eabacked Virginia Tech53c283.02$150 inWon+$133.024940.8%20 W · 29 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Virginia Tech53c232.08$123 inWon+$109.084751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe478…28eabacked Virginia Tech53c200$106 inWon+$941464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Virginia Tech50c140$70 inWon+$7075651.9%392 W · 364 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ad2…71f8backed California50c140$70 inLost-$701421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.27per pick48cpaid-56.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x28a8…57d5backed Virginia Tech53c84.91$45 inWon+$39.913948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked California45c55$25 inLost-$24.7557144.7%255 W · 316 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed California46c40$18 inLost-$18.41,09041.7%455 W · 635 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf1…c04bbacked Virginia Tech54c40$22 inWon+$18.45646.4%26 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd41…5afebacked Virginia Tech52c30$16 inWon+$14.4757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.