NHL · resolved market
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b569f9a4c9be721bc238eb43a3ad35540a6ffa8475e175f3ff28094cf056c7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadiensof Canadiens, Canucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Canadiens | 43c | 3,517$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016.86 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Canucks | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.98 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…deb1backed Canadiens | 47c | 1,580$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.04 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Canadiens | 40c | 1,505$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.75 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Canadiens | 43c | 1,502$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.91 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Canucks | 53c | 1,430$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.04 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Canucks | 57c | 1,295$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.26 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Canucks | 60c | 1,275$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.3 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177c…bcd1backed Canadiens | 42c | 1,114$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.38 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens | 42c | 921.03$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.22 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Canadiens | 42c | 726.19$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.19 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…61bbbacked Canadiens | 42c | 619.05$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.05 | 412 | 48.3%199 W · 213 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Canucks | 58c | 615.73$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.22 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Canucks | 58c | 500$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Canucks | 58c | 430$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.4 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Canadiens | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Canadiens | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Canucks | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Canucks | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Canucks | 51c | 101.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Canadiens | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Canucks | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Canadiens | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Canucks | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Canucks | 61c | 83.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Canucks | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Canucks | 58c | 75.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Canadiens | 41c | 60.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Canucks | 58c | 59.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Canucks | 59c | 52.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Canadiens | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Canadiens | 44c | 45.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Canucks | 56c | 37.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734a…e083backed Canadiens | 41c | 36.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Canucks | 61c | 34.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Canadiens | 40c | 28.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c70…87a0backed Canadiens | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Canadiens | 42c | 24.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Canucks | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5748…3863backed Canucks | 59c | 22.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…fb77backed Canadiens | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)this page
- Canucks vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Canucks vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canucks vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.