Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b844e4ffc1d32b71a0e96bb8e40119e836e12d0d48f2bed8fc23ea878ffe991
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 0c | 13,993$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e2…e5f5backed Yes | 1c | 6,410$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,035$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 774.72$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 690.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 509.01$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 24c | 422.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.62 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 7c | 270.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 70c | 249$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.54 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 5c | 244.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 233.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.69 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 227.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 218.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked No | 68c | 187.78$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.03 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 17c | 186$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 23c | 181.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.25 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 48c | 154.19$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 7c | 152.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.76 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 149.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 119.91$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e9…4a3cbacked Yes | 20c | 112.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked No | 73c | 107.34$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed No | 71c | 106.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 21c | 104.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 18c | 96.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 28c | 88.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 29c | 85.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 52c | 84.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 79.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 76.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 60c | 75.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 73c | 69.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 20c | 53.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 21c | 51.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 40.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 70c | 37.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac72…6fefbacked No | 77c | 31.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…214cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01d…0af5backed No | 37c | 30.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 65c | 29.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked Yes | 60c | 28.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 77c | 27.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…7becbacked No | 73c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 69c | 18.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.