Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf22a5aa23dd9df13adb22496c7f73ca0f0f80c6b1880feed0d715be05f40cbf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 60c | 1,558$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.56 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 20c | 485.97$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.71 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 17c | 399.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.56 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 383.05$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.71 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 34c | 376.95$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.95 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 359.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.53 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 34c | 356.41$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.41 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e2…e5f5backed No | 9c | 335.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 36c | 309.05$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.18 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 28c | 241.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.74 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 207$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.43 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 36c | 195.56$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.47 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 157.57$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 42c | 151$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.58 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…392bbacked Yes | 43c | 141.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…5866backed Yes | 43c | 121.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 120.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 61c | 111$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 32c | 109.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…43c1backed Yes | 42c | 106.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +166.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 106.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 36c | 105.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 105.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 105$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 100.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3725…bfc3backed Yes | 42c | 97.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 43c | 94.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed Yes | 41c | 83.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 20c | 78.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 73.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 41c | 67.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 65.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 19c | 54.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 74c | 52.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 41c | 50.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 35c | 49.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…02c0backed No | 63c | 47.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 37c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 36c | 41.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed Yes | 27c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 38c | 40.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073d…b94bbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 38.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 68c | 36.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 34.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 63c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9076…f6a4backed No | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 47c | 30.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd20e…b050backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +68%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 63c | 27.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 62c | 26.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 76c | 25.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 66c | 24.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 63c | 23.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 20.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01d…0af5backed No | 70c | 18.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 66c | 15.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 14.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.