TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Busan: Alex Bolt vs James McCabe

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alex Boltof Alex Bolt, James McCabe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$110,855
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$120,359

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,855 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5fea…78b1backed Alex Bolt57c26,192$14,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,203.9537741.4%156 W · 221 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked James McCabe36c12,937$4,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,616.287,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed James McCabe39c12,704$4,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,974.498,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c3…f7e8backed James McCabe18c9,638$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.992437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x31c1…7047backed Alex Bolt64c7,467$4,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,677.4279855.9%446 W · 352 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed James McCabe25c6,997$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,748.011,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked James McCabe32c4,813$1,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.3911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Alex Bolt64c2,253$1,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.78,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked James McCabe43c2,003$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.116,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed James McCabe30c1,841$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.235,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Alex Bolt58c1,606$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.8965952.5%346 W · 313 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed James McCabe38c1,472$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.484,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e71…eba7backed James McCabe40c1,253$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.2812235.2%43 W · 79 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked James McCabe44c1,110$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.496,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked James McCabe43c1,073$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.3956744.6%253 W · 314 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe612…ee20backed James McCabe45c1,067$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.939560%57 W · 38 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5444…bbdabacked James McCabe18c1,056$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.1633149.2%163 W · 168 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5df…382dbacked James McCabe43c1,011$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.614252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed James McCabe36c1,007$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.741,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Alex Bolt55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45039534.4%136 W · 259 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Alex Bolt59c962.75$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.634847.1%164 W · 184 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed Alex Bolt64c923.15$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.8836554.2%198 W · 167 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Alex Bolt56c920.39$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.0665346.4%303 W · 350 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2533…5c8cbacked Alex Bolt56c800$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3523100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked James McCabe41c684.89$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.432,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed James McCabe40c613.04$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.091,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8277…7d31backed James McCabe20c576.96$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.489244.6%41 W · 51 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Alex Bolt56c571.16$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.214,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed Alex Bolt66c568.88$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19630844.5%137 W · 171 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Alex Bolt58c532.14$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.950156.1%281 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Alex Bolt58c532.12$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.8818459.8%110 W · 74 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Alex Bolt59c516.61$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.7712359.3%73 W · 50 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Alex Bolt59c516.47$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.631,13250.3%569 W · 563 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed James McCabe42c504.09$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.220331%63 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed James McCabe42c495.93$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.489,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked James McCabe32c479.66$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.997,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Alex Bolt59c472.68$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.540548.1%195 W · 210 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d7…406dbacked Alex Bolt58c462.55$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.2511759.8%70 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Alex Bolt59c453.17$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.8648453.7%260 W · 224 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Alex Bolt74c439.56$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.254,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Alex Bolt58c430.19$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.5676853%407 W · 361 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc003…47a8backed Alex Bolt62c392.94$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.613063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Alex Bolt59c382.14$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.0541658.7%244 W · 172 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed James McCabe32c329.29$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.776,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Alex Bolt60c327.75$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.6260355.4%334 W · 269 L+19.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed James McCabe28c296.96$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.994,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Alex Bolt64c295.14$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.7310161.4%62 W · 39 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed James McCabe45c277.35$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.811,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Alex Bolt58c245.27$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.241,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa70c…08d3backed James McCabe13c243.4$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.32425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-64.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed Alex Bolt57c242.34$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.2960651.8%314 W · 292 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57c8…3d9bbacked James McCabe36c229.99$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1719052.1%99 W · 91 L-12.9wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-13.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed James McCabe42c229.81$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.521,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Alex Bolt58c211.37$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4661752.5%324 W · 293 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x448d…3adebacked Alex Bolt55c205.68$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.5632247.2%152 W · 170 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7820…5b79backed James McCabe17c204.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8420515.6%32 W · 173 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Alex Bolt57c203.96$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9251445.5%234 W · 280 L-2.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Alex Bolt61c191$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.114,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed James McCabe35c177.26$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.642359.1%250 W · 173 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked James McCabe42c172.41$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4158232%186 W · 396 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Alex Bolt59c171$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.6221754.8%119 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd017…2701backed Alex Bolt57c170.91$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Alex Bolt58c168.41$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9530555.4%169 W · 136 L+0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Alex Bolt58c168.41$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9529652.4%155 W · 141 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Alex Bolt58c168.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5981933.1%271 W · 548 L-30.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Alex Bolt58c166.73$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.221,17451.9%609 W · 565 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Alex Bolt60c162.67$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.071,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b35…bfa7backed Alex Bolt68c145.2$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1528265.6%185 W · 97 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7f…a844backed James McCabe18c143.38$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2774346.3%344 W · 399 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65cf…5cdebacked James McCabe41c134.96$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5922646%104 W · 122 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d9…13f4backed James McCabe43c134.76$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9514851.4%76 W · 72 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d0…566ebacked James McCabe43c134.76$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9548552.4%254 W · 231 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ca…e926backed James McCabe43c132.52$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.989243.5%40 W · 52 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e59…1520backed James McCabe46c131.34$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4230744.6%137 W · 170 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed James McCabe27c131.24$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.323,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2c89…526abacked James McCabe13c131.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0624638.2%94 W · 152 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed James McCabe42c120$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.794,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa8…6e47backed James McCabe43c114.55$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2610057%57 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88d1…e058backed James McCabe35c111.53$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.52742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid+26.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Alex Bolt57c109.11$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9281255.3%449 W · 363 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f0…c8a6backed Alex Bolt63c107.42$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9611959.7%71 W · 48 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Alex Bolt56c104$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7696755.3%535 W · 432 L+3.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed Alex Bolt55c97.78$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447943%34 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked James McCabe42c92.62$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1370148.2%338 W · 363 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed James McCabe44c91.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.033,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedef…a67ebacked James McCabe42c88.77$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.921136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6687…b9ddbacked Alex Bolt57c85.39$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6928454.9%156 W · 128 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x782b…ff64backed Alex Bolt64c83.18$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6431366.8%209 W · 104 L+27.1wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x08f1…705cbacked Alex Bolt61c82.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3729958.5%175 W · 124 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Alex Bolt59c82.51$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7419055.3%105 W · 85 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Alex Bolt60c81.33$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5363052.4%330 W · 300 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked James McCabe27c77.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5356817.4%99 W · 469 L-74.2wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x56e4…6ee4backed Alex Bolt59c76.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5716152.8%85 W · 76 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked James McCabe36c76.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3411331%35 W · 78 L-11.2wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-38%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Alex Bolt58c75.19$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.572,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae63…9dcdbacked Alex Bolt56c69.25$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.320552.2%107 W · 98 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9221…9419backed James McCabe42c64.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.145846.6%27 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb883…3994backed James McCabe37c56.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2121549.8%107 W · 108 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcad1…d2b4backed James McCabe42c47.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed James McCabe44c47.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.921,27661%778 W · 498 L+27.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.