Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b8f2288a708733a9c9332244f9340c2af84e05c26f2095cac80f234a354a349
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 1c | 2,337$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 1c | 1,280$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 58c | 428.39$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.26 | 371 | 48.5%180 W · 191 L | +25.0wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 297.41$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.06 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 5c | 274.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 227.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 214.54$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.73 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 208.63$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 21c | 179.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.98 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 28c | 168$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 46c | 129.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked No | 68c | 101.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 52 | 73.1%38 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 97.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 44c | 87.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 71c | 85.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 634 | 60.3%382 W · 252 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 83.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 70.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 77c | 68.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 77c | 62.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 34c | 60.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 27c | 53.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 1,184 | 54.9%650 W · 534 L | +49.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 69c | 49.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 54c | 48.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 68c | 48.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 235 | 46.4%109 W · 126 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 46.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 36c | 46.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…5ac2backed No | 25c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 45.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 44.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 46c | 43.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 27c | 42.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 442 | 51.4%227 W · 215 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 40c | 40.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 37.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 54c | 32.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,926 | 62.8%1,210 W · 716 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 40c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 24.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,240 | 49.3%1,104 W · 1,136 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 75c | 24.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 74c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 74c | 21.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 580 | 53.4%310 W · 270 L | -26.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 73c | 18.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 153 | 58.2%89 W · 64 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed No | 65c | 16.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed No | 80c | 13.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.