Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b9796ceb661a60cf5f41b31ad0fbe4915b26e12c811d2c09ec0fc49f5ea3a18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Ilbirs eSports, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Nemesis | 42c | 12,953$5,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,487.39 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 6,004$3,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,375.65 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Nemesis | 41c | 2,756$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.71 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Ilbirs eSports | 61c | 2,267$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.03 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Ilbirs eSports | 53c | 2,185$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.59 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 2,009$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.27 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 54c | 1,840$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.04 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Ilbirs eSports | 53c | 1,487$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.68 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 1,084$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.74 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Ilbirs eSports | 57c | 867.25$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.63 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ilbirs eSports | 69c | 682.9$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.16 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Team Nemesis | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc646…e394backed Team Nemesis | 52c | 499.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.6 | 376 | 55.1%207 W · 169 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Ilbirs eSports | 69c | 350$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.89 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 347.24$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.83 | 137 | 64.2%88 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Nemesis | 37c | 333.93$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.26 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Nemesis | 51c | 295.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.81 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9c7dbacked Team Nemesis | 52c | 291.73$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.7 | 367 | 61%224 W · 143 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 49c | 270.38$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.6 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…26dabacked Team Nemesis | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 211 | 44.1%93 W · 118 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Team Nemesis | 40c | 248.06$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Team Nemesis | 45c | 244.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.82 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Nemesis | 42c | 241.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Team Nemesis | 31c | 205.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Nemesis | 53c | 190.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Team Nemesis | 51c | 154.96$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…c067backed Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 119.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Team Nemesis | 44c | 113$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ilbirs eSports | 66c | 106.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Team Nemesis | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Team Nemesis | 59c | 99.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 70c | 98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Team Nemesis | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked Team Nemesis | 29c | 75.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5454…ceadbacked Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 65.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Team Nemesis | 30c | 63.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed Team Nemesis | 52c | 57.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 169 | 39.6%67 W · 102 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Team Nemesis | 52c | 57.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Ilbirs eSports | 68c | 53.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea7…a60cbacked Team Nemesis | 44c | 50.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Team Nemesis | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 69c | 44.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Team Nemesis | 52c | 30.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cfdebacked Ilbirs eSports | 70c | 27.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Team Nemesis | 40c | 25.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…1501backed Ilbirs eSports | 51c | 23.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - European Pro League Group BTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.