Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2408fecd8b537f80bfc71e71af8bc51ca9557cb4d3914a05ab4a88900b10087c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Ilbirs eSports, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ilbirs eSports | 49c | 3,491$1,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,702.68 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Team Nemesis | 54c | 2,645$1,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.27 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 1,800$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ilbirs eSports | 48c | 1,469$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.27 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 970.52$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed Team Nemesis | 52c | 966.74$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.04 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Team Nemesis | 52c | 942.2$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.34 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Team Nemesis | 49c | 937.06$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.96 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Nemesis | 51c | 799.99$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 459.93$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.93 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Nemesis | 55c | 436$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.2 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Team Nemesis | 55c | 419.08$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.98 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Ilbirs eSports | 48c | 414.86$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Nemesis | 62c | 388.44$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.02 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Nemesis | 51c | 349.98$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.49 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Team Nemesis | 57c | 347.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.85 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Team Nemesis | 59c | 300$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Nemesis | 70c | 237.65$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 211$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.72 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ilbirs eSports | 37c | 207.46$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.53 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Team Nemesis | 51c | 205.12$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.51 | 137 | 64.2%88 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Team Nemesis | 49c | 204.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.29 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Ilbirs eSports | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Team Nemesis | 48c | 197.38$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.94 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 186.92$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.87 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Team Nemesis | 61c | 164.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Team Nemesis | 52c | 135$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 138 | 54.3%75 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Team Nemesis | 41c | 127.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Team Nemesis | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +15.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Team Nemesis | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 162 | 50%81 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Team Nemesis | 51c | 99.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa369…3ad6backed Team Nemesis | 62c | 96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Nemesis | 64c | 95.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Ilbirs eSports | 31c | 85.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Team Nemesis | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 69.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…d6f5backed Ilbirs eSports | 37c | 68.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Team Nemesis | 41c | 67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Team Nemesis | 45c | 67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 253 | 51.4%130 W · 123 L | +23.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5454…ceadbacked Team Nemesis | 71c | 59.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 58.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…c72abacked Ilbirs eSports | 51c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…3e48backed Ilbirs eSports | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Team Nemesis | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Nemesis | 50c | 44.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Team Nemesis | 47c | 42.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Team Nemesis | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 182 | 48.9%89 W · 93 L | +15.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Ilbirs eSports | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Team Nemesis | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300a…4c94backed Team Nemesis | 61c | 30.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…44efbacked Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 30.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Team Nemesis | 74c | 30.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…1501backed Team Nemesis | 59c | 21.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - European Pro League Group BTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.