Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. Team Tidebound
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b9e6d2069e02383fe6bd1dbb085303568dbe26b2afbd3a1894c3b9ed952fd5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Tideboundof PARIVISION, Team Tidebound
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6304…e570backed Team Tidebound | 41c | 2,495$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,472.12 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked PARIVISION | 63c | 1,586$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.56 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Team Tidebound | 40c | 1,454$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.25 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a7…530ebacked Team Tidebound | 49c | 1,234$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.17 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…6254backed PARIVISION | 62c | 1,209$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.51 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked PARIVISION | 20c | 1,098$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.71 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed PARIVISION | 36c | 1,038$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.83 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2a…0620backed PARIVISION | 59c | 993.22$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked PARIVISION | 18c | 899.82$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.53 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed PARIVISION | 59c | 864$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.76 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed PARIVISION | 60c | 708.65$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…b15fbacked Team Tidebound | 68c | 560.7$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed PARIVISION | 40c | 499$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.6 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…a1fcbacked Team Tidebound | 47c | 426.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Tidebound | 47c | 374.5$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.48 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed PARIVISION | 59c | 344$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.96 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed PARIVISION | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…b0f3backed PARIVISION | 60c | 311.48$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Team Tidebound | 61c | 300$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Team Tidebound | 38c | 268$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.16 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Team Tidebound | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed PARIVISION | 33c | 230$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c3…0b5ebacked PARIVISION | 59c | 203.39$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…b717backed PARIVISION | 44c | 201.32$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Team Tidebound | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2729…e171backed Team Tidebound | 38c | 197.67$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2d…722cbacked PARIVISION | 60c | 175.1$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed PARIVISION | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…6298backed PARIVISION | 35c | 137.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bd…68bebacked PARIVISION | 17c | 135.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…c0dabacked PARIVISION | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd02…6bbdbacked Team Tidebound | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5f5bbacked PARIVISION | 63c | 87.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…6144backed PARIVISION | 49c | 80.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…5091backed PARIVISION | 39c | 77.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…312dbacked Team Tidebound | 71c | 73.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…5787backed PARIVISION | 53c | 67.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked PARIVISION | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3557…4596backed PARIVISION | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed PARIVISION | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…b1fdbacked PARIVISION | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e7…21a8backed Team Tidebound | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed58…81f3backed Team Tidebound | 46c | 32.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…64cfbacked PARIVISION | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked PARIVISION | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 393 | 51.1%201 W · 192 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed PARIVISION | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.