Us Midterms · resolved market
Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000 voters?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0baede08c1096e2bf4c5559b7bc24103dd2761ecbc38d0db3e9fedaf99b4eba1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,020 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 50c | 413$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 50c | 381$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 50c | 364$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 5c | 333$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 50c | 332$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 31c | 236.44$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.14 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5c…e2a0backed No | 24c | 79.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…cacebacked Yes | 50c | 79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0956…9aa4backed No | 50c | 79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000 voters?this page
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be 2,800,000 voters or greater?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be below 2,000,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,200,000 and 2,400,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000 voters?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.