Us Midterms · resolved market
Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000 voters?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cfad61e8842082a85ccbe1bf52d920c065fef6cca88b3d264665b0df78f6421
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,111 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 23c | 386$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc03…cd5cbacked No | 77c | 386$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 25c | 382.79$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked Yes | 24c | 368$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…44a9backed No | 76c | 368$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 70c | 89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked Yes | 23c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes | 22c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 59.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Yes | 27c | 51.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…b418backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c3…eccfbacked Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94f2…25b0backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000 voters?this page
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be 2,800,000 voters or greater?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be below 2,000,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000 voters?Yes won
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,200,000 and 2,400,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000 voters?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.