Us Midterms · resolved market
Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,200,000 and 2,400,000 voters?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0f9406f5bf768917ccb40d0716aec9276f20a8ca034023c95cccd8ce4812afc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,310 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,201$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf614…c345backed No | 63c | 1,051$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed No | 63c | 926$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +58%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed No | 58c | 846$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…a065backed Yes | 42c | 808$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 797.35$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 58c | 787$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.54 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbd…17c9backed Yes | 42c | 633$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked Yes | 37c | 600$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed No | 58c | 571$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 79c | 452$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 6c | 436$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Yes | 37c | 386$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7e…7dfdbacked No | 63c | 386$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes | 42c | 382$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed Yes | 37c | 361$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed Yes | 37c | 322$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 37c | 247$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked Yes | 37c | 243$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed Yes | 42c | 213$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5516…2263backed Yes | 37c | 204$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 199.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…26fdbacked Yes | 42c | 168$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 64c | 138.06$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 15c | 129.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…fa78backed Yes | 55c | 129.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 40c | 52.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 45c | 33.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 62c | 26.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…671fbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,200,000 and 2,400,000 voters?this page
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be 2,800,000 voters or greater?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be below 2,000,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000 voters?Yes won
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000 voters?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.