Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bb192e0c71b616d80e3032edd6336b0376435c74b021cae236194f76d4bec03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62e3…fd3abacked Yes | 0c | 29,138$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 33c | 1,360$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.94 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec3…c303backed No | 79c | 907.83$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…ee83backed Yes | 31c | 554.25$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed Yes | 18c | 532.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 14c | 421.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 13c | 363.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 29c | 363.35$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.32 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 63c | 314.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.01 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 27c | 299.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 17c | 287.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 286.47$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1805…4571backed Yes | 37c | 265.74$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 73c | 239.37$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 5c | 200.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 8c | 194.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 8c | 194.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 193.32$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 16c | 190.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 22c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…9d9ebacked Yes | 48c | 134$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed Yes | 34c | 112.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…8963backed Yes | 25c | 110.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 17c | 104.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…782fbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…671bbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…e181backed Yes | 29c | 69.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 68.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 29c | 67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 27c | 59.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 55.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a37…093fbacked Yes | 28c | 53.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…fc73backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…c739backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 43.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea8…0b2cbacked Yes | 24c | 41.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…c839backed No | 77c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked No | 66c | 37.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 74c | 28.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 19.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or higher on November 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on November 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.