Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff4e05ffe28df28620d49229376170f452bd021f25741e7313b10429c9a1ec7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 2c | 2,206$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 18c | 973.05$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 2c | 949$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 2c | 653.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 43c | 543.39$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.84 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb36d…eef9backed No | 3c | 418.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 23c | 399.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 64c | 388.58$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.59 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 69c | 353.25$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.21 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 54c | 312.5$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.05 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 61c | 300.07$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.87 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…c7b0backed Yes | 76c | 265.51$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 43c | 253.53$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 49c | 246.26$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.49 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 70c | 214.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf7…ce20backed Yes | 70c | 210.67$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…d4d5backed No | 9c | 209.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 71c | 195.94$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…671bbacked Yes | 53c | 180$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 56c | 178.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 78c | 175.51$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 43c | 151.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…9d9ebacked Yes | 60c | 150$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 20c | 139.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…8963backed Yes | 59c | 136.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 70c | 112.67$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 61c | 98.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a1…4b1dbacked Yes | 75c | 92.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 51c | 92.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 86.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3535…75b2backed Yes | 79c | 79.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 54c | 74.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd83a…3609backed Yes | 66c | 69.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…e181backed Yes | 39c | 69.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec72…d655backed Yes | 80c | 61.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…bed4backed Yes | 58c | 61.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 58.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b3…960abacked No | 44c | 56.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 41c | 50.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…4dafbacked Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…c90ebacked Yes | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c06…4e2ebacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 58c | 39.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…6cb3backed Yes | 56c | 35.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd392…b7bcbacked Yes | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a9…73efbacked Yes | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 47c | 26.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4be…58f2backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…f0febacked Yes | 76c | 24.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…31f1backed Yes | 52c | 24.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…90a5backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a98…d85abacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a7…0464backed Yes | 79c | 12.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or higher on November 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on November 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.