Tennis · resolved market
Erste Bank Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex Michelsen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bd9f03e04cfe8a29fc66f4ef3e6f5ae17b10a9ab0e97a0e211be8d22645bc45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Cerundolo, Michelsen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michelsen | 14c | 3,789$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.92 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Cerundolo | 49c | 1,605$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.35 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Michelsen | 28c | 1,110$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.9 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Michelsen | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Cerundolo | 48c | 511.04$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.74 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Michelsen | 52c | 422.13$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.5 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Michelsen | 13c | 323.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Michelsen | 54c | 296.3$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 134 | 35.1%47 W · 87 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…5aeebacked Michelsen | 9c | 181$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Michelsen | 23c | 156.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Michelsen | 52c | 129.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Michelsen | 51c | 114.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cerundolo | 77c | 104.63$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Michelsen | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Michelsen | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michelsen | 51c | 61.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Cerundolo | 46c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa905…fcf1backed Michelsen | 54c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…1dd2backed Michelsen | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Cerundolo | 74c | 41.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Cerundolo | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cerundolo | 49c | 40.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Cerundolo | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Michelsen | 55c | 24.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Cerundolo | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.