Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0be2a8e1e72b800e0bd7883153400ce3a2ee0c737d795efa05a5720e41bbb454
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Everton FCof Arsenal FC, Everton FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,584 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arsenal FC | 19c | 12,214$2,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,323.27 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Arsenal FC | 22c | 1,281$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.53 | 133 | 27.1%36 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Arsenal FC | 14c | 413.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 286 | 33.9%97 W · 189 L | +19.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Everton FC | 77c | 122.7$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb992…0838backed Everton FC | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Arsenal FC | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Everton FC | 78c | 59.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Arsenal FC | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Everton FC | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Everton FC | 77c | 48.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Arsenal FC | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked Everton FC | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Everton FC | 78c | 28.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f60…257cbacked Everton FC | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Everton FC | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Everton FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.