TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arsenal FCof Arsenal FC, Everton FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$145,777

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,777 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8372…5223backed Arsenal FC43c44,997$19,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,648.516857.4%39 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Everton FC57c30,770$17,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,539.133661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6551…e043backed Everton FC57c12,000$6,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,839.991241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Everton FC58c7,500$4,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3504434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Arsenal FC43c5,069$2,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,889.6117557.1%100 W · 75 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Everton FC57c4,958$2,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8265560%33 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Arsenal FC44c4,540$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,539.4130143.9%132 W · 169 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Everton FC58c4,287$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5003151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Everton FC57c4,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.9950644.3%224 W · 282 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Arsenal FC43c3,728$1,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,138.482,55847.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Everton FC57c3,512$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00011349.6%56 W · 57 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Everton FC56c3,307$1,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,851.7945936.2%166 W · 293 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4306…618abacked Everton FC56c2,306$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3009053.3%48 W · 42 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Everton FC56c1,824$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.8912949.6%64 W · 65 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cbb…c561backed Arsenal FC25c1,795$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.52922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Arsenal FC39c1,764$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.3913327.1%36 W · 97 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Everton FC70c1,461$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.976,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Arsenal FC42c1,394$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.5210838.9%42 W · 66 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9055…12cebacked Arsenal FC36c1,270$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.84030%12 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Arsenal FC44c1,136$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.363100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+103.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed Arsenal FC43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57032158.9%189 W · 132 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99a0…75bdbacked Arsenal FC11c911.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.15633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+83.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee35…239cbacked Arsenal FC44c907.93$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.44714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-67.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Arsenal FC45c777.94$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.9430050.7%152 W · 148 L-16.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Everton FC57c773.68$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4419350.5%47 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Everton FC55c740.65$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.3651750.1%259 W · 258 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Arsenal FC27c725.48$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.984,76841.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Everton FC58c700$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4066540%26 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3c15backed Arsenal FC44c681.82$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.826737.3%25 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2419…1e60backed Everton FC57c680.65$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.97425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-41.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0756…38c9backed Arsenal FC44c427.09$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.575543.6%24 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Arsenal FC43c407.46$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.8252454.2%284 W · 240 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Everton FC56c404.99$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.7972249.9%360 W · 362 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fa6…e929backed Arsenal FC26c386.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.544337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7030…195ebacked Arsenal FC45c375.7$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+44%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Arsenal FC40c372.69$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.5428633.9%97 W · 189 L+19.7wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd708…b9d2backed Everton FC58c344.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003956.4%22 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b0…f879backed Arsenal FC44c340.91$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.912733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ad8…075abacked Everton FC56c332.99$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick70cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Arsenal FC40c322.97$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.974942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Arsenal FC44c320.53$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.9519244.3%85 W · 107 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbe…1559backed Arsenal FC43c315.35$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.759345.2%42 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68cc…d976backed Arsenal FC45c288.89$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.898259.8%49 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Everton FC57c280$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.62458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea4b…dedebacked Everton FC56c267.86$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick63cpaid-56.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Everton FC59c254.24$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15026344.9%118 W · 145 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Everton FC65c230.77$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15019834.8%69 W · 129 L-17.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-26.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Arsenal FC44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.275152.9%27 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Arsenal FC44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.276454.7%35 W · 29 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52ac…02afbacked Arsenal FC44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.27666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+60.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7cd…9973backed Everton FC56c223.21$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1257536%27 W · 48 L-9.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-31.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Everton FC56c222$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3217337.6%65 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Arsenal FC40c208.92$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.931,40944.5%627 W · 782 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Arsenal FC45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11019128.8%55 W · 136 L-0.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81b0…5159backed Arsenal FC45c189.37$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.379940.4%40 W · 59 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…bf20backed Arsenal FC16c181.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.991952.6%10 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.19per pick33cpaid+55.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8123…268cbacked Everton FC57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-57.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Everton FC58c170$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.69645.8%44 W · 52 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa936…3b90backed Everton FC56c134.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.410554.3%57 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4293…792fbacked Arsenal FC45c133.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.33728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a08…ebdcbacked Everton FC57c122.81$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b7…7491backed Everton FC57c117$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.693342.4%14 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3542…24f0backed Arsenal FC43c116.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.283458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Everton FC77c115.15$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2949753.7%267 W · 230 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Everton FC56c113$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.287440.5%30 W · 44 L-7.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa23f…a64ebacked Arsenal FC44c112$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7213954%75 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fca…cfc3backed Arsenal FC44c112$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.721643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca1…57e4backed Arsenal FC44c107.95$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.456535.4%23 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Everton FC51c107.51$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8337342.6%159 W · 214 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Arsenal FC15c101$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.8510124.8%25 W · 76 L-12.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x449c…eaf5backed Everton FC57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb728…fc92backed Arsenal FC49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518356.6%47 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Everton FC58c96$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6823353.6%125 W · 108 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Everton FC68c90.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.721,93842.5%823 W · 1,115 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb503…7552backed Arsenal FC45c90.22$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.624630.4%14 W · 32 L-5.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-26.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc21d…727ebacked Arsenal FC45c89.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.563748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Arsenal FC43c84.37$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4523250.9%118 W · 114 L+0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad8b…aa8dbacked Arsenal FC45c82.22$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.221560%9 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1683…e4abbacked Everton FC59c81.32$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.987745.5%35 W · 42 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04eb…f50dbacked Everton FC57c80$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.64645.7%21 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x65b5…a9f7backed Everton FC54c79.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.214262.7%89 W · 53 L+12.2wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x44f6…2c1ebacked Arsenal FC45c75.56$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.566060%36 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbe8…e9d9backed Everton FC70c74.61$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.23580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Everton FC58c73.22$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6841021.7%89 W · 321 L-54.8wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-49.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x6b80…d023backed Arsenal FC45c66.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.676854.4%37 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Arsenal FC42c61.72$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.941,63652.9%866 W · 770 L+32.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Everton FC57c61.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3511640.5%47 W · 69 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dcc…45f6backed Arsenal FC46c58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.32650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Arsenal FC44c56.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.821145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24a1…3d34backed Arsenal FC43c56.21$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.81747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Arsenal FC45c55.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5624340.7%99 W · 144 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34e9…e6c7backed Everton FC57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304641.3%19 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5968…96f0backed Everton FC57c50.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.886462.5%40 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Arsenal FC43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.518963%119 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d6e…0681backed Arsenal FC35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+46.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec46…072dbacked Arsenal FC43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.55837.9%22 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Everton FC57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.529751.9%154 W · 143 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Arsenal FC43c47.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.822335.4%79 W · 144 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf10a…d6c2backed Arsenal FC44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.452166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+27.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xacff…4176backed Arsenal FC45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.446159%36 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.