Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on December 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bebb4a9e102a7f7a57afe1e20ab95e7f3aa181534c01e4fefc850921de157c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 9c | 2,293$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.71 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 74c | 1,997$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.32 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dda…e023backed No | 52c | 627$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 2cpaid | +525%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 72c | 495.61$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.07 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed No | 75c | 319.99$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.29 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe204…cfb5backed No | 53c | 305.66$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.26 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 21c | 250$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed No | 26c | 220.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked No | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 12c | 179.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 41c | 176.74$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.7 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 66c | 169.81$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…c739backed Yes | 79c | 149.37$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 28c | 129.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 72c | 129.58$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 128.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 72c | 123.47$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 79c | 110.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked No | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 109$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…69b0backed No | 33c | 104.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0237…e7b2backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…465fbacked No | 22c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 19c | 78.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 68.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…7ea9backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a98…d85abacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfef1…c407backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d7…0b5ebacked Yes | 79c | 25.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 75c | 24.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…f543backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…dd45backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…9adbbacked No | 75c | 15.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 48°F or higher on December 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37°F or below on December 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on December 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on December 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on December 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.