NHL · resolved market
Spread: Kraken (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c039ae885dfe75c7821794cc3242e01f02857e280c4bcec5177c0eff33f9532
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ducksof Kraken, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7705…a442backed Kraken | 33c | 965.67$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.67 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Kraken | 31c | 781.45$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.25 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Ducks | 67c | 765.67$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.67 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Ducks | 69c | 765$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.15 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kraken | 29c | 376.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.33 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Ducks | 71c | 338.03$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.03 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…88fdbacked Kraken | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Kraken | 31c | 249.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Ducks | 68c | 141$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Ducks | 69c | 115.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Ducks | 67c | 105$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Ducks | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Ducks | 71c | 71.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Kraken | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Ducks | 68c | 62.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ad…8b71backed Ducks | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Kraken | 30c | 57.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Ducks | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Ducks | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ducks | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Ducks | 69c | 30.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Ducks | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Ducks | 68c | 21.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Ducks | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked Ducks | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kraken (-1.5)this page
- Ducks vs. KrakenDucks won
- Ducks vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.