NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a806378dca6e5280bfa1d6a8117fe481b709736f6e3ff089cc9b863d9323ae0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 2,174$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.96 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e92…c03fbacked Under | 54c | 1,868$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.47 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 50c | 1,200$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.94 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 1,017$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.99 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 53c | 1,004$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.64 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 990$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.4 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 47c | 461$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.67 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +16.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 303.07$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.46 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Under | 55c | 272.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.12 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.9wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 53c | 214.49$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.81 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Under | 40c | 184$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.23 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 52c | 134$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Over | 41c | 128.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 106.45$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…d36ebacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Over | 47c | 81.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Over | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 78.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Under | 52c | 62.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Over | 45c | 53.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e82…47d5backed Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +54%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0e…e0cdbacked Under | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 51c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…e4f6backed Over | 49c | 40.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 44c | 37.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…e4debacked Under | 55c | 32.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…9244backed Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 52c | 25.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Under | 53c | 19.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 263 | 57.8%152 W · 111 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5this page
- Ducks vs. KrakenDucks won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Ducks won
- Spread: Kraken (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.