Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Royer (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c0412c91b1fa6a687f9927377d37f23330e8414379776639e109d265503ae78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tsitsipasof Tsitsipas, Royer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Tsitsipas | 49c | 6,424$3,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,283.65 | 4,098 | 39.8%1,631 W · 2,467 L | +95.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Royer | 51c | 5,366$2,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,710.95 | 1,750 | 50.2%878 W · 872 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Tsitsipas | 52c | 3,850$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.99 | 1,066 | 50.1%534 W · 532 L | +38.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99aa…6c5abacked Tsitsipas | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Royer | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 406 | 35.7%145 W · 261 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…3250backed Royer | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 250 | 52%130 W · 120 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Royer | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 373 | 57.6%215 W · 158 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Royer | 51c | 900.1$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.5 | 1,789 | 48.7%872 W · 917 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Royer | 52c | 749.91$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.75 | 9,444 | 44.3%4,188 W · 5,256 L | -249.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Royer | 51c | 574$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.74 | 255 | 46.7%119 W · 136 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Royer | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 785 | 52.9%415 W · 370 L | +22.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Royer | 48c | 242.25$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.28 | 416 | 36.8%153 W · 263 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Royer | 49c | 230.34$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.87 | 435 | 41.8%182 W · 253 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Tsitsipas | 51c | 169.92$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 1,123 | 37.2%418 W · 705 L | -18.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Tsitsipas | 51c | 152.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Royer | 51c | 118.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 843 | 57.3%483 W · 360 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Royer | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 198 | 57.6%114 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Royer | 50c | 105$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,917 | 59.3%1,136 W · 781 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Royer | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 624 | 47.6%297 W · 327 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Royer | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Royer | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Royer | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Royer | 48c | 90.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 2,255 | 37.1%836 W · 1,419 L | +43.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Royer | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,303 | 40.2%1,329 W · 1,974 L | +22.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Royer | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Tsitsipas | 51c | 79.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d5…573bbacked Royer | 51c | 70.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Tsitsipas | 52c | 65.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 273 | 46.9%128 W · 145 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Royer | 51c | 41.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 141 | 60.3%85 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Royer | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 577 | 36.7%212 W · 365 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd3…99b2backed Royer | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe011…159fbacked Tsitsipas | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Tsitsipas | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Royer (+1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Open: Valentin Royer vs Stefanos TsitsipasStefanos Tsitsipas won
- Royer vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Royer vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Royer vs TsitsipasTsitsipas won
- Set 2 Winner: Royer vs TsitsipasTsitsipas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.