Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c0c4efe1d24b1cf1284f1af27180caf309cbfedeac75ddb0ad9b220643d55ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 1,038$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 986.19$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed No | 77c | 508.19$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.12 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 4c | 275.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 52c | 219.42$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.01 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 202.51$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.28 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 162.34$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.96 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 27c | 128$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.96 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 27c | 116.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 115.59$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 108.77$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 34c | 105.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 103.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd6…5ab1backed No | 74c | 95.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 92.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 25c | 87.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 87.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed No | 76c | 64.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f65…ae86backed No | 78c | 60.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 26c | 52.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 48.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed No | 79c | 48.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 45.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…9837backed No | 75c | 42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 40.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ba…d2ffbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 39.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 76c | 37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 49c | 33.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 73c | 32.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 31.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6648…f69abacked No | 80c | 30.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 28.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8292…0482backed No | 78c | 24.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 24.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 63c | 23.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 79c | 20.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 64c | 16.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.