Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf04b95164bbfd29b222558036ac42cce83a0aa1e8377df835390a639a1704be8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed Yes | 0c | 4,037$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 1,495$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 1c | 1,030$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 76c | 632.77$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.32 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 39c | 345.16$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.97 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 342.16$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 31c | 246.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 243.39$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 33c | 146$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 74c | 135.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 115.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 115.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 71c | 105.46$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 68c | 87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 60c | 83.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 83.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 39c | 82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 24c | 74.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 59c | 69.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 68.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 66.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 52c | 60.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 58.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 40c | 54.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 49c | 47.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 45c | 44.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 43.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 40c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 40c | 42.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 39.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 61c | 36.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 36.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 60c | 36.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 35c | 34.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 50c | 34.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 73c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 31c | 33.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 42c | 32.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 55c | 31.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 31.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…1aedbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 42c | 30.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 61c | 24.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 45c | 24.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 46c | 24.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 53c | 23.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 66c | 23.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 64c | 22.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 22.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 19.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 69c | 18.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 71c | 14.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.