Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c26656b0c341ed822f12fee05e060c2aab54b1507e2929ee9c4aa7e8a6d2f91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 76c | 601.34$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.37 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 259.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 48c | 169.33$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 144.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.31 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 131.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 69c | 131.7$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 25c | 88.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.06 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 39c | 80.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 77.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 77.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 49c | 52.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 67c | 47.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 53c | 44.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d4…6297backed No | 50c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 49c | 38.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 53c | 37.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 37.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 71c | 35.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…a354backed Yes | 42c | 32.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 48c | 31.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 71c | 30.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 65c | 30.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 43c | 30.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 77c | 28.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 62c | 28.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 26.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 46c | 25.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 44c | 23.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 55c | 22.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 21.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 48c | 20.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x095d…110bbacked Yes | 64c | 17.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.