Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84de0c78f66d21a04bd1891eb765c15b7d792d95b6935deb8e0431d65ff67455
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 1c | 1,230$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 277.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 43c | 193.7$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 59c | 164.41$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 135.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 111.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 104.41$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 57c | 104.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 70c | 90.28$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 68c | 87.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 84.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 31c | 83.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 79.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e07…13b0backed Yes | 38c | 78.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 52c | 75.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 36c | 64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 45c | 60.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 34c | 57.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 27c | 57.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 52.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 40c | 49.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 41c | 48.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 30c | 47.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 46.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 55c | 46.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 45c | 44.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 57c | 39.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095d…110bbacked No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 30c | 36.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 36c | 35.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 70c | 32.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 45c | 32.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 47c | 32.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 39c | 31.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 61c | 31.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 66c | 25.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…af76backed No | 54c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 23.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0261…9347backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa4…f4eabacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.