College Football · resolved market
O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c3d3e1a0be56939aa2412a7f5e5163043233488e9a1692d30f1c7e324382b12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8058…d023backed Over | 52c | 5,662$2,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,717.76 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 50c | 2,422$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.17 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Under | 51c | 1,950$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 1,242$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.74 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 50c | 800$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.85 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 50c | 588$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…bed5backed Under | 49c | 208.33$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Under | 51c | 205.88$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 49c | 204.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 195.19$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Over | 51c | 39.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5223…29d9backed Over | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 38.5this page
- Spread: Western Michigan (-6.5)Western Michigan won
- Spread: Western Michigan (-7.5)Western Michigan won
- Western Michigan vs. Northern IllinoisWestern Michigan won
- Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois: 1H MoneylineWestern Michigan won
- Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois: O/U 39.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.