College Football · resolved market
Spread: Western Michigan (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3d080bfcc6915deb96426e3712bbac0a3ce1b1cfd85689319928694beb2d330
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Western Michiganof Western Michigan, Northern Illinois
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Northern Illinois | 47c | 20,000$9,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,479.99 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Northern Illinois | 46c | 20,000$9,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,199.99 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Western Michigan | 53c | 18,410$9,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,655.74 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Western Michigan | 52c | 15,067$7,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,179.04 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Western Michigan | 53c | 8,923$4,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,168.81 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Northern Illinois | 45c | 5,103$2,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,274.1 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Western Michigan | 53c | 5,015$2,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,360.21 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Northern Illinois | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Northern Illinois | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Western Michigan | 55c | 3,560$1,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.96 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Western Michigan | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Northern Illinois | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b8e1backed Western Michigan | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Northern Illinois | 47c | 2,953$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.91 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Western Michigan | 55c | 2,658$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.21 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…88a3backed Northern Illinois | 52c | 2,080$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…2e41backed Northern Illinois | 48c | 1,331$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Western Michigan | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Northern Illinois | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Western Michigan | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed Western Michigan | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Northern Illinois | 46c | 806.96$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.2 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9083…622ebacked Western Michigan | 53c | 588.68$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.68 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d34…05d8backed Western Michigan | 53c | 552.94$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Northern Illinois | 56c | 536.46$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.95 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Western Michigan | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…9d9ebacked Western Michigan | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Northern Illinois | 47c | 333$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.51 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e0…b310backed Northern Illinois | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Western Michigan | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Northern Illinois | 47c | 260$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Western Michigan | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Western Michigan | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…bed5backed Northern Illinois | 48c | 212.77$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Northern Illinois | 47c | 208.78$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.57 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…a69fbacked Northern Illinois | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Western Michigan | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Western Michigan | 56c | 134.95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Western Michigan | 54c | 110.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Northern Illinois | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Western Michigan | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Western Michigan | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc58…1dffbacked Western Michigan | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Northern Illinois | 48c | 83.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Northern Illinois | 47c | 81.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c24…8c06backed Western Michigan | 53c | 67.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Northern Illinois | 46c | 56.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Western Michigan | 54c | 53.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…005dbacked Western Michigan | 59c | 36.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Western Michigan (-6.5)this page
- O/U 38.5Over won
- Spread: Western Michigan (-7.5)Western Michigan won
- Western Michigan vs. Northern IllinoisWestern Michigan won
- Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois: 1H MoneylineWestern Michigan won
- Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois: O/U 39.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.