Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c5b02f2b9f5351f7328e620910b006929e6eb59e73bcd427ab7e9b101e2581f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,201 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,470$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 46c | 217.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 27c | 202.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 186.64$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 47c | 180.2$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.22 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 80c | 138.3$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 138.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 115.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 37c | 107.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 102.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 55c | 97.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 96.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 74c | 85.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 75c | 82.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 80.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 79.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 38c | 78.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 46c | 76.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 72.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 70c | 71.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…3425backed Yes | 33c | 61.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed No | 72c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 53.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…ab93backed Yes | 76c | 51.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 49c | 51.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 34c | 44.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 69c | 43.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 67c | 40.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…5e99backed Yes | 39c | 38.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 38c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 58c | 37.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e0…3913backed Yes | 62c | 35.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 32.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 40c | 32.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 36c | 29.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 37c | 27.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 68c | 26.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…1a9ebacked Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 61c | 20.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed No | 72c | 16.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.