Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75c23471bbf3701f874a1134f70e7fea533376ffda8fabe6be71214e22a0f4bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 659.83$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 4c | 342.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 6c | 285.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 31c | 200.51$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.77 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 18c | 185.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.72 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 185.2$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 168.84$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.1 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 26c | 167.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.92 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 9c | 165.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 156.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 20c | 148.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.3 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 142.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.39 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked No | 69c | 119.48$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 109.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.13 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 35c | 100.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…464fbacked Yes | 32c | 90.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +210.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 21c | 85.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 34c | 82.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked Yes | 31c | 77.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa428…40c6backed No | 77c | 76.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 31c | 70.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 69c | 65.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a59…9a2fbacked Yes | 32c | 61.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…ab93backed Yes | 77c | 60.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 41c | 60.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 58.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 58.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 55.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…eab7backed No | 76c | 55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 71cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…3425backed Yes | 36c | 54.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 68c | 49.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 29c | 49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed No | 66c | 45.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 26c | 44.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 73c | 41.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 70c | 37.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 76c | 34.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 31.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…a9cabacked No | 40c | 31.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 26.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 24.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 80c | 23.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 19.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7666…532abacked No | 73c | 19.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 72c | 18.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.