Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c70c14d29d4a1e213057e058830720fdd151c0ef722a7389593c6a577f70c57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,913 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 1,849$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.16 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 1,154$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.32 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…0386backed Over | 1c | 886.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Over | 46c | 651.41$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9548…1226backed Under | 57c | 597.54$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 38c | 530.28$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.91 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 32c | 137.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 47c | 116.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 47c | 115.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 45c | 111.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 46c | 109.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Over | 18c | 93.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 45c | 93.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Under | 57c | 86.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 55c | 85.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…8776backed Under | 58c | 78.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 46c | 78.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Over | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Under | 53c | 49.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 62c | 47.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 42c | 45.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 29c | 38.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…e9f7backed Over | 40c | 32.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 54c | 22.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-1.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.