Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ad0f373968b9e6ac4014180726dbfc575deebfecaeb5ed4f0bb0511d4667166
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,956 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9037…0386backed No | 0c | 12,017$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 50c | 568.11$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.98 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…59c2backed Yes | 42c | 297.79$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 69c | 144.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked No | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 44c | 128.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 61c | 108.93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…1d90backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 58c | 98.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 32c | 95.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 45c | 74.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…434dbacked Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…2391backed Yes | 36c | 56.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed No | 64c | 49.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yes | 66c | 35.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 64c | 17.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-1.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.