Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x881ce4052a6f16e7e5da662d0a4bb2c2fe9828245349363fe833301c5b25811f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,562 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 2,963$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.52 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 40c | 999.98$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 80c | 677$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.42 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 56c | 528.52$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.55 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 27c | 468.64$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.58 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 13c | 358.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked Under | 42c | 309.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fad…948fbacked Under | 21c | 284.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ff…a851backed Over | 79c | 284.81$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x763d…68dcbacked Over | 79c | 284.81$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…5e8bbacked Under | 21c | 284.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1038…fd48backed Over | 57c | 279.91$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…1678backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…9907backed Over | 57c | 140.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 35c | 137.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 54c | 136.05$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 57c | 108.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Over | 70c | 99.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 42c | 81.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 50c | 80.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Over | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x266a…15d3backed Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Over | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Over | 57c | 55.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Under | 60c | 48.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c9…1798backed Over | 49c | 45.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…e9f7backed Over | 43c | 37.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5a…86c1backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 45c | 22.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 52c | 21.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-1.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.