Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7880bf42b628e3072c6f10caffdc52adf0b2ffa52884fc7ed3a5d63d91e7de5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,259 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6d0…9b55backed Over | 47c | 4,428$2,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,087.22 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 4,335$2,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.94 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 4,079$2,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,856.35 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 58c | 1,376$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.28 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 26c | 1,100$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.95 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 30c | 999.46$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.84 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 59c | 850.04$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 32c | 816.6$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.36 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 30c | 799.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 769.51$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.27 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 57c | 637.51$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.3 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 66c | 616.62$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635f…6be6backed Over | 69c | 540.72$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 67c | 518.84$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Over | 43c | 475.42$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.43 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 33c | 333$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.11 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 51c | 272.92$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 34c | 249.9$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.02 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 37c | 235.38$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 34c | 230.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.18 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…55bfbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Over | 67c | 186.14$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…fba6backed Over | 68c | 146.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Over | 35c | 143.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 55c | 133.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…1678backed Over | 41c | 128.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 33c | 125$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 35c | 97.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 53c | 94.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 35c | 91.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 33c | 85.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f07…8626backed Over | 68c | 75.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 33c | 72.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 16c | 72.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Over | 41c | 61.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 58c | 58.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…a5ccbacked Over | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb19b…f3fabacked Over | 66c | 46.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 25c | 45.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Over | 49c | 39.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…79fcbacked Under | 60c | 36.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…0386backed Under | 55c | 36.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 35c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 34c | 33.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…e846backed Over | 32c | 33.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 35c | 31.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…bc76backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x289c…79bcbacked Under | 56c | 18.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…a863backed Over | 65c | 18.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 68c | 18.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-1.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.