Fifa International · resolved market
France to score first vs. Iraq?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c906f1bd72082dee84b0a8fbb13fa60bd4f0e96938399bcfd8fbe4a6b404d04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked No | 12c | 1,951$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.12 | 644 | 43.3%279 W · 365 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 11c | 1,787$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 342 | 49.1%168 W · 174 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 11c | 1,400$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.99 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3a…64b7backed No | 12c | 999.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 11c | 847.84$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.16 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 11c | 521.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7ed6backed No | 12c | 499.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 427 | 10.3%44 W · 383 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked No | 10c | 401.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 12c | 399.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 12c | 394.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 9c | 365.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 13c | 300.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 484 | 38.2%185 W · 299 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 119.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 13c | 94.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- France to score first vs. Iraq?this page
- France vs. Iraq: Neither team to score first?No won
- Iraq to score first vs. France?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.