Premier League · resolved market
Will Newcastle vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c952b80f49067e410732a6b7824ef422c54c6f1e941956b6b0f949a81082d96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb638…2842backed Yes | 24c | 975$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 24c | 699.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea7…b38abacked No | 76c | 330$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d6…956bbacked No | 76c | 330$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…602dbacked No | 76c | 220$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d3…b684backed No | 76c | 220$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed No | 74c | 214.79$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 76c | 210.21$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a5…9f24backed No | 76c | 205$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…95fcbacked No | 76c | 205$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d9…ed60backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 74c | 182$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked No | 75c | 112$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8868…fbb9backed No | 76c | 95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd3…cc49backed No | 76c | 95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa782…0c57backed No | 76c | 95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a8b…949cbacked No | 76c | 95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…a6d3backed No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c70…89f5backed No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 75c | 88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 147 | 54.4%80 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 75c | 87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 197 | 35.5%70 W · 127 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c53…278abacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…7fddbacked No | 76c | 72.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…8a0cbacked Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…4130backed No | 76c | 60.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37cd…9547backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…f248backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec78…b48bbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b23…9844backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad7…8df3backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…8aa5backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 76c | 14.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?this page
- Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-16?No won
- Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.