NFL · resolved market
Texans vs. Ravens: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d3818003a6483d6587676a4a5621eaf87096bf7f9caabf39e78ad7c825f940c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 47c | 42,021$19,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,733.85 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 53c | 26,469$13,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,531.08 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 53c | 16,748$8,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,871.56 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 49c | 6,111$2,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,994.56 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 47c | 6,062$2,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,849.09 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Over | 54c | 3,000$1,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 52c | 2,659$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.57 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 46c | 1,500$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Over | 50c | 1,155$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.5 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Under | 50c | 955$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.5 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -7.0wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -48%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…0673backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Over | 52c | 314.79$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.1 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50c…66b7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texans vs. Ravens: O/U 40.5this page
- Spread: Ravens (-3.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-1.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-2.5)Texans won
- Texans vs. RavensTexans won
- Texans vs. Ravens: O/U 42.5Over won
- Texans vs. Ravens: O/U 46.5Over won
- Texans vs. Ravens: O/U 47.5Over won
- Texans vs. Ravens: O/U 49.5Over won
- Texans vs. Ravens: O/U 50.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.