NFL · resolved market

Spread: Texans (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bb20525e330672dc46f8cd1d219a19da035f509c7120f00ace1de40f690ec0b

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Texansof Texans, Ravens
Resolved: Oct 5, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $98,674
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $98,941

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,674 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1496…a429backed Texans	51c	74,510$38,305 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36,205	274	54.7%150 W · 124 L	+13.3wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Ravens	48c	69,971$33,658 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33,657.79	418	51.9%217 W · 201 L	+13.1wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Ravens	50c	25,000$12,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,500	144	50%72 W · 72 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Texans	52c	11,507$5,984 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,523.36	446	52.9%236 W · 210 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d47…d0a2backed Texans	51c	3,300$1,683 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,617.1	12	83.3%10 W · 2 L	+3.5wins	+0.29per pick	54cpaid	+53.3%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed Texans	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,500	55	60%33 W · 22 L	+4.4wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Texans	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000	257	44.4%114 W · 143 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec2…69fdbacked Ravens	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	117	55.6%65 W · 52 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Texans	51c	1,999$1,016 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$983.5	89	59.6%53 W · 36 L	+7.4wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b2c…5a5bbacked Texans	51c	352.98$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.96	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ravens	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	1,065	51.3%546 W · 519 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Texans	54c	300$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138	266	48.9%130 W · 136 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Texans	50c	300$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	133	47.4%63 W · 70 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Texans	51c	250$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.5	206	50.5%104 W · 102 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Ravens	45c	223.64$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.64	647	47.3%306 W · 341 L	+42.5wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e07…c0d4backed Texans	55c	223.64$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.64	52	61.5%32 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Ravens	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	280	47.5%133 W · 147 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Texans	48c	102.33$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.21	611	48.6%297 W · 314 L	+10.7wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2fe…73a4backed Ravens	52c	94.23$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0078…bca0backed Ravens	49c	51.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	227	45.4%103 W · 124 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6692…1125backed Texans	54c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1316…c716backed Texans	54c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f68…0e4bbacked Texans	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-4.7wins	-0.13per pick	56cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1bfd…3462backed Ravens	52c	47.9$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	67	52.2%35 W · 32 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2942…5c1bbacked Ravens	48c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Ravens	49c	39.22$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.22	236	47%111 W · 125 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2325…3256backed Texans	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	42	50%21 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5318…2a91backed Texans	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	105	49.5%52 W · 53 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Ravens	50c	27$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	245	51%125 W · 120 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee0…21f8backed Texans	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	13	84.6%11 W · 2 L	+4.0wins	+0.31per pick	54cpaid	+59.7%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Texans (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event