Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d41f6afb4963a0f8eb06b7bfe5deef3a89f5486e9cb3f001203c8e1063cb27a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb4d…a541backed Yes | 5c | 1,538$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…e0bfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,507$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d26…d21fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,490$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc9…450bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,476$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0407…8b86backed Yes | 5c | 1,474$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…f204backed Yes | 5c | 1,280$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…7779backed Yes | 5c | 1,278$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…0a54backed Yes | 5c | 1,258$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 16c | 1,080$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.65 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6582…a10abacked Yes | 8c | 1,030$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…de39backed Yes | 8c | 1,030$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5d…77afbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d0…14d5backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…529cbacked Yes | 7c | 991$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…1409backed Yes | 7c | 991$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 7c | 973.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…ed25backed No | 79c | 900$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.4 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…3b81backed Yes | 5c | 835$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0062…8660backed Yes | 5c | 834.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f80…8988backed Yes | 7c | 768$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…2f53backed Yes | 9c | 768$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 619.04$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 12c | 403.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 14c | 389.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 13c | 276.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 16c | 184.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed Yes | 15c | 168.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe98e…a597backed Yes | 14c | 111.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +194.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 17c | 102.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 56c | 34.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 18.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…131cbacked No | 75c | 18.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Svitle by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Svitle by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Svitle by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.