Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Svitle by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2eae5b1b0cba1e1109435b763e8e57ac5b25983c9f0044ccda479121512bdae9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 66c | 1,582$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.97 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 52c | 1,475$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.46 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7054…6075backed Yes | 78c | 1,296$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.32 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed Yes | 33c | 691.26$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.94 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 24c | 561.8$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.19 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 29c | 541.61$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.74 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…b79abacked Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 68c | 437.82$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 29c | 436.15$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.3 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ba…4cedbacked No | 78c | 200$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 23c | 168$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 30c | 155.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.12 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 70c | 152.04$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 29c | 129.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.35 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 25c | 124.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 120$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 32c | 109$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748e…f4f2backed No | 76c | 105$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a30…9726backed No | 76c | 105$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 69cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…88fdbacked Yes | 24c | 105$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d0…bc0abacked Yes | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 103.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…ed25backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…83e5backed No | 56c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +142.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 50c | 77.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 69c | 72.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 32c | 71.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 19c | 55.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…b686backed No | 71c | 55.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Yes | 39c | 52.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4df…d3dabacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.8wins | -0.44per pick | 53cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6df…d71dbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…1b17backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c30…df21backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0b…e9d9backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 24c | 48.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d71…08a9backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…a949backed Yes | 25c | 40.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +10.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked Yes | 32c | 39.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01a…f231backed Yes | 78c | 39.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…a6e2backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…859cbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 58c | 27.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3509…929abacked Yes | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb514…a2f1backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf74c…4b75backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed No | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68c0…1655backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012b…8ea2backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +353.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…fa87backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Svitle by September 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Svitle by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Svitle by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.