Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46ea2e53c079a9b8e2379413eaf1ff7a752e4f79ec5fa472b4cd822d77eb77d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c4e…98f7backed Yes | 6c | 1,694$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…4924backed Yes | 6c | 1,668$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38d…f749backed Yes | 6c | 1,634$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eaa…a6cbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,628$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0d…8475backed Yes | 6c | 1,599$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b16…1792backed Yes | 6c | 1,583$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a1…0b84backed Yes | 6c | 1,571$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca3…00d0backed Yes | 6c | 1,544$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…58f6backed Yes | 7c | 1,467$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…b578backed Yes | 6c | 1,390$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 9c | 1,059$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.14 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…0d3fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,030$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c5…f9e2backed Yes | 7c | 1,030$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…fb71backed Yes | 7c | 1,030$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf099…cf5bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,030$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…7407backed Yes | 6c | 1,030$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a14…8bafbacked Yes | 6c | 1,025$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…747dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,025$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f54…3b66backed Yes | 6c | 1,025$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…9b0dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,020$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…c643backed Yes | 6c | 1,020$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a0…7df4backed Yes | 6c | 1,020$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…c825backed Yes | 6c | 1,020$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…fff9backed Yes | 6c | 1,020$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84e…7179backed Yes | 6c | 1,020$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5814…40afbacked Yes | 6c | 1,010$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…6abfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,010$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda51…dfb0backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4553…1eb3backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 7cpaid | +739.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…2cf8backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2730…9541backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d2…09eebacked Yes | 7c | 989.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8284…6b8ebacked Yes | 7c | 989.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9067…4563backed Yes | 7c | 786$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b6…7ffbbacked Yes | 7c | 786$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 17c | 714.79$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.95 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 345.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 17c | 226.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…77dbbacked Yes | 7c | 208.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…6d52backed Yes | 14c | 125$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 29c | 100.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 16c | 91.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 25c | 53.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 58c | 43.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…60b8backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31?this page
- Will Russia enter Svitle by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Svitle by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Svitle by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.