Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d4ed9413ec0059c714ccc9dda7a5549de278594411829a06a3bf1391ae91f00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 373.13$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 72c | 170$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 16c | 139.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 118.17$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 29c | 110.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 22c | 92.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 30c | 90.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 75.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 20c | 74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 72.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 70.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 68.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 23c | 55.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 25c | 55.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 50.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 70c | 50.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 77c | 48.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 29c | 46.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 32c | 37.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 34.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 71c | 29.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…6f94backed No | 72c | 27.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 25.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 23.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 22.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…9c59backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 67c | 18.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 18.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 73c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.